Materials to better understand COVID19

I'm glad that NY governor Cuomo said today "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" (I really appreciate his honesty all the time). In the midst of global health crisis, we should work from home to protect the vulnerable and to curve the spread of the virus, but we can also better understand our knowledge about this novel virus. Below are the articles my epidemiology professor shared with students that help us to achieve the goal.

The Economist article below is a helpful overview of potential treatment mechanisms for the coronavirus. I couldn't help feeling like I was reading a high-school biology textbook.

Anatomy of a killer: Understanding SARS-CoV-2 and the drugs that might lessen its power. the Economist.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/12/understanding-sars-cov-2-and-the-drugs-that-might-lessen-its-power

This CNN news is something a bit more hopeful.

The world's fastest supercomputer identified chemicals that could stop coronavirus from spreading, a crucial step toward a treatment. CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coronavirus-scn-trnd/index.html

Below is widely shared, so I think there is no need to share again, but it's insightful too. One good thing about this article was that it has been republished in multiple languages including Japanese.

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve” Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Last, this blog post by an epidemiologist, who has worked on diagnostic testing for Ebola and Zika, was really insightful (especially #3 & #4). It's mostly about the epidemiological rationale for #FlattenTheCurve and one important takeaway was how to make the net reproduction rate (R0) <1. This is critical.

COVID19 Insights by Bill Rodoriguez
https://covid19-insights.squarespace.com/

One question, though. The author categorized Japan into "category 1" which imposed social distancing and implemented widespread testing early and decisively, with other Asian countries like China or Korea, but I doubt that Japan's policy is comparable to other group 1 countries. Unlike the current several US states or Wuhan, I'm still seeing many of my friends are dining out or traveling to other cities.

One thing that may have made a difference though was the early school closure.

The effectiveness of school closure is still debated, according to the author, but it seems there is some evidence to suggest that a large-scale school closure has preventive effects on the outbreak, especially in the early stage.

The most convincing evidence the author cited was a study on different responses to the Spanish flu between Philadelphia and St. Louis (the PNAS paper is available here, see Figure 1), which Cuomo cited today too. If the early social distancing really matters, including school closure, it seems Japan did a good job in flattening the curve.

But still I'm questioning myself, especially about Japan's low proportion of positive cases among the tested (I realized this point from this Motoko Rich's tweet). Maybe it's simply because we don't have a hand-shaking culture? Mystery goes on.